Nintendo Reaches into Wii U Grab Bag, Pulls Out Some Vague, Some Fascinating Promises

It’s been a ho-hum 2013 for Nintendo’s Wii U so far: some carry-over posturing about scads of “launch window” titles, but less than a handful of games with bankable release dates. When I checked the hopper for January, February and March, I counted four, maybe five Wii U titles with firm dates, all of them least a month or two off.

That’s not how you move systems, and Nintendo ran damage control Wednesday morning by trotting out company president Satoru Iwata in a broad-ranging (and reaching) “Wii U Direct” video effort to soothe jittery system owners and would-be buyers still waiting for slam dunks. Call it Nintendo circling its wagons…or maybe just an “if you squint you can make it out on the horizon” wagon-train parade.

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“In past Nintendo dialogues, we have focused more on games releasing in the near future, but it’s still early in 2013, so I’d like to change the format a little bit,” said Iwata before launching into a sneak preview of what Nintendo has cooking.

For starters, Iwata says the Wii U will see at least two major system updates this year: one in the spring, another during the summer. Arguably the most important of these involves a desperately needed fix for the crazy-long time it takes to launch apps or reload the Wii U Menu — a process that can take up to 30 seconds. Imagine if each time you backed out of an iOS app it took half a minute to bring up iOS’s icon overlay. That’d be insane, and it’s a shame quality control didn’t view load times as prohibitive enough to remedy before the launch in November. Thank goodness Nintendo’s working to put things right.

Iwata also mentioned finally debuting the long-awaited Wii U Virtual Console – Nintendo’s vehicle to sell old-school NES and Super NES games – just after the spring system update. The Virtual Console’s been missing in action since the Wii U launched, despite its longstanding availability on the original Wii. That, according to Iwata, is because Wii U Virtual Console games are poised to offer features their Wii counterparts didn’t, like being able to save backups of your game progress, the option to play away from the TV on the Wii U GamePad, access to Miiverse communities for these older games and support for additional platforms like the Game Boy Advance (never released on the Wii Virtual Console).

If you’ve already purchased the Wii Virtual Console version of a game, it sounds like you’ll have to pay again, though Nintendo says you’ll get “special pricing”: regularly priced games will run $ 5 to $ 6 (NES) or $ 8 to $ 9 (SNES), with those prices dropping to $ 1 and $ 1.50, respectively, if you bought the game for Wii Virtual Console. It’s better than no discount, I suppose, and Nintendo can probably justify the nominal buck to buck-and-a-half for research and development on the Wii U Virtual Console’s extras (it’s certainly taking the company long enough to pull everything together).

If you’d rather not wait for spring, Nintendo’s running a beta dubbed “Wii U Virtual Console Trial Campaign”: Between January and July, Nintendo will release a classic title every 30 days for $ 0.30 a pop (Nintendo’s tied the pricing and release timeframes in with the original Famicom‘s 30th anniversary in Japan, coming up this July). After July, the prices of the discounted titles will bounce back to normal, but you’ll be able to buy them at the reduced price if you participated in the beta. The games list is none too shabby, either: Balloon Fight, F-Zero, Punch-Out!!, Kirby’s Adventure, Super Metroid, Yoshi and Donkey Kong.

Wii U Virtual Console sounds like a clever little diversion for Nintendo wonks, but let’s not forget how fuzzy these games look nowadays on resolution-locked flat-screens. It’s not that I want high-res versions — these things are what they are at their native pixel counts — but you wouldn’t lay wax paper over a Monet, would you?

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Let’s cut to the chase: Nintendo fans want to know where the next Zelda game is, what comes after Super Mario Galaxy 2, when they’ll be able to sample the Wii U’s take on Mario Kart, what’s up with the next Super Smash Bros. game and so forth.

Iwata confirmed that Nintendo won’t offer new games in January or February and apologized for this, but said “Nintendo takes seriously its responsibility to offer a steady stream of new titles in the very early days of a new platform to establish a good lineup of software.” Why the delay? Because, says Iwata, “We firmly believe we have to offer quality experiences when we release new titles.” No argument there.

What’s coming between spring and summer? Iwata identified several titles: Game & Wario, Wii Fit U, Pikmin 3, LEGO City Undercover and The Wonderful 101. But don’t get too excited: These were originally slated to hit by March.

We also caught another glimpse of Bayonetta 2 (as well as the female protagonist’s backside), heard a bit about Super Smash Bros. U and why it’ll probably be a while before we see it (screens at E3), and then Iwata talked about, well, a bunch of stuff we already knew was in the offing: a new unnamed Super Mario game by the team that developed the Super Mario Galaxy and Super Mario 3D Land platformers, a new Mario Kart racer (both set to be playable at E3) and a new Wii Party game (Iwata showed video of someone shaking a Wii U GamePad to roll dice as well as two players using a GamePad like a mini-foosball table).

More intriguing were the two unannounced new games, like one from the developers behind Kirby’s Epic Yarn starring Yoshi (a kind of sequel to Yoshi’s Story for the Nintendo 64) or — wait for it JRPG wonks — a Shin Megami Tensei / Fire Emblem crossover from Atlus.

Last but not least, Iwata revealed the company’s plans for Zelda on the Wii U. The really good news: Nintendo says it’s planning to “rethink the conventions of Zelda,” tinkering with tenets like dungeon linearity and solo play. The merely good news: Nintendo’s remastering Zelda: The Wind Waker in HD for the system and tweaking the gameplay. The bad-good news: You’ll probably have to wait a long time for the new Zelda, but you’ll get The Wind Waker HD by “this fall.”

But the best news of all, from where I’m sitting: Taking a page from Apple, Iwata closed by invoking “one more important topic”: a new Wii U game from Monolith Soft, the company responsible for Xenoblade Chronicles, the best roleplaying game on any game system released in…well, when was Final Fantasy XII released? Has it been seven years already?

All told, a mixed performance from Nintendo, but here’s the thing: However vague much of the information in Iwata’s presentation was, I love the dignified, spare, wonderfully thorough way Nintendo’s chosen to address its audience lately. By contrast, I feel like a need to shower after watching most Microsoft/Sony pressers.

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Reports: JJ Abrams to direct next 'Star Wars'

LOS ANGELES (AP) — Another universe of sci-fi fans has been put in the hands of J.J. Abrams.

According to multiple trade reports, Abrams, 46, is set to direct the next installment of "Star Wars," which Disney has said will be "Episode 7" and due out in 2015. Disney bought "Star Wars" maker Lucasfilm last month for $4.06 billion.

The Emmy-award-winning director of the TV show "Lost" also captained the reboot of "Star Trek" for rival studio Paramount Pictures, with the next installment in that series, "Star Trek: Into Darkness," set to hit theaters May 17.

Citing unnamed sources, the news was reported earlier by Hollywood trade outlets The Wrap, Deadline, The Hollywood Reporter and Daily Variety.

Messages left by The Associated Press for Abrams' representatives as well as Disney and Lucasfilm were not immediately returned.

Soon after the news broke Thursday afternoon, websites were flush with chatter. On Twitter, "J.J. Abrams," ''Star Wars" and "(hash)Star Trek" were all trending topics.

Roberto Orci, a producer and writer who has worked with Abrams on "Star Trek," ''Star Trek: Into Darkness," and "Mission: Impossible III," appeared to confirm the reports on Twitter. In response to a question about Abrams' involvement, Orci tweeted back "True!" He also responded to a Spanish-speaking questioner, "Creo que si!" ("I think so.")

Despite denying his interest in directing the next "Star Wars" following The Walt Disney Co.'s October announcement, many people pegged Abrams as the most obvious choice.

Abrams spoke about the plot of the original "Star Wars" in the lecture series "TED Talks" in March 2007, and reportedly became enamored of "Lost" co-creator Damon Lindelof partly because Lindelof was wearing a "Star Wars" T-shirt when they first met.

In 2009, Abrams told the Los Angeles Times: "As a kid, 'Star Wars' was much more my thing than 'Star Trek' was."

Abrams also worked with Lucasfilm's Industrial Light and Magic special effects division for "Mission: Impossible III."

He is the second big name associated with the new "Star Wars" films to be launched under the Disney umbrella. Late last year, Lucasfilm confirmed that Michael Arndt, who wrote "Little Miss Sunshine" and "Toy Story 3" would pen the screenplay for "Episode 7."

Adam Frazier, a staff writer for the entertainment website GeeksofDoom.com, said Abrams should be able to make the next "Star Wars" original but at the same time appease longtime fans.

"He took the 'Star Trek' franchise, which was just drowning in misery, and he was able to bring that back to life," Frazier said. "If there's anyone that can do it with 'Star Wars' I think it's him."

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The New Old Age Blog: Grief Over New Depression Diagnosis

When the American Psychiatric Association unveils a proposed new version of its Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, the bible of psychiatric diagnoses, it expects controversy. Illnesses get added or deleted, acquire new definitions or lists of symptoms. Everyone from advocacy groups to insurance companies to litigators — all have an interest in what’s defined as mental illness — pays close attention. Invariably, complaints ensue.

“We asked for commentary,” said David Kupfer, the University of Pittsburgh psychiatrist who has spent six years as chairman of the task force that is updating the handbook. He sounded unruffled. “We asked for it and we got it. This was not going to be done in a dark room somewhere.”

But the D.S.M. 5, to be published in May, has generated an unusual amount of heat. Two changes, in particular, could have considerable impact on older people and their families.

First, the new volume revises some of the criteria for major depressive disorder. The D.S.M. IV (among other changes, the new manual swaps Roman numerals for Arabic ones) set out a list of symptoms that over a two-week period would trigger a diagnosis of major depression: either feelings of sadness or emptiness, or a loss of interest or pleasure in most daily activities, plus sleep disturbances, weight loss, fatigue, distraction or other problems, to the extent that they impair someone’s functioning.

Traditionally, depression has been underdiagnosed in older adults. When people’s health suffers and they lose friends and loved ones, the sentiment went, why wouldn’t they be depressed? A few decades back, Dr. Kupfer said, “what was striking to me was the lack of anyone getting a depression diagnosis, because that was ‘normal aging.’” We don’t find depression in old age normal any longer.

But critics of the D.S.M. 5 now argue that depression may become overdiagnosed, because this version removes the so-called “bereavement exclusion.” That was a paragraph that cautioned against diagnosing depression in someone for at least two months after loss of a loved one, unless that patient had severe symptoms like suicidal thoughts.

Without that exception, you could be diagnosed with this disorder if you are feeling empty, listless or distracted, a month after your parent or spouse dies.

“D.S.M. 5 is medicalizing the expected and probably necessary process of mourning that people go through,” said Allen Frances, a professor emeritus at Duke who chaired the D.S.M. IV task force and has denounced several of the changes in the new edition. “Most people get better with time and natural healing and resilience.”

If they are diagnosed with major depression before that can happen, he fears, they will be given antidepressants they may not need. “It gives the drug companies the right to peddle pills for grief,” he said.

An advisory committee to the Association for Death Education and Counseling also argued that bereaved people “will receive antidepressant medication because it is cheaper and ‘easier’ to medicate than to be involved therapeutically,” and noted that antidepressants, like all medications, have side effects.

“I can’t help but see this as a broad overreach by the APA,” Eric Widera, a geriatrician at the University of California, San Francisco, wrote on the GeriPal blog. “Grief is not a disorder and should be considered normal even if it is accompanied by some of the same symptoms seen in depression.”

But Dr. Kupfer said the panel worried that with the exclusion, too many cases of depression could be overlooked and go untreated. “If these things go on and get worse over time and begin to impair someone’s day to day function, we don’t want to use the excuse, ‘It’s bereavement — they’ll get over it,’” he said.

The new entry for major depressive disorder will include a note — the wording isn’t final — pointing out that while grief may be “understandable or appropriate” after a loss, professionals should also consider the possibility of a major depressive episode. Making that distinction, Dr. Kupfer said, will require “good solid clinical judgment.”

Initial field trials testing the reliability of D.S.M. 5 diagnoses, recently published in The American Journal of Psychiatry, don’t bolster confidence, however. An editorial remarked that “the end results are mixed, with both positive and disappointing findings.” Major depressive disorder, for instance, showed “questionable reliability.”

In an upcoming post, I’ll talk more about how patients might respond to the D.S.M. 5, and to a new diagnosis that might also affect a lot of older people — mild neurocognitive disorder.

Paula Span is the author of “When the Time Comes: Families With Aging Parents Share Their Struggles and Solutions.”

---

This post has been revised to reflect the following correction:

Correction: January 24, 2013

An earlier version of this post misspelled the surname of a professor emeritus at Duke who chaired the D.S.M. IV task force. He is Allen Frances, not Francis.

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Apple shares tumble after relatively unimpressive earnings report

Apple Inc. may still make products customers love, but its latest earnings report appears to have broken investors' hearts.

For the third quarter in a row, Apple reported revenue and profit that were impressive by normal standards, but short of what analysts had expected. Investors reacted harshly, driving Apple's stock price down more than 10% in after-hours trading Wednesday.

If that trend holds when trading opens Thursday, Apple will have lost almost $50 billion in market value in the blink of an eye, and its stock will have given up almost all the extraordinary gains it had made in the last year. Investors' and fund managers' belief in one of the world's most widely held stocks will be severely tested in the coming days.

More fundamentally, despite upbeat talk by Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook, the performance is unlikely to quell growing worries that Apple's remarkable run of dominance might be over.

"Overall, compared to other companies, it's impressive. But for Apple's standards, it's not great," said Patrick Moorhead of Moor Insights & Strategy. "I do think this somewhat fuels the perception that Apple is slowing down a bit.... And it's driven by the fact that some of its competitors are catching up, and in some markets have already caught up."

Apple executives did their best during an hourlong conference call with analysts to project optimism and excitement about both the last quarter and the months ahead. They noted that the company had trouble meeting demand for both iPads and Macs, and could have sold many more had they been able to build enough.

They also pointed to a growing business in China and the expansion of iTunes, which is now available in 119 countries.

"Apple is in one of the most prolific periods of innovation in its history," Cook said. "We continue to believe our fundamentals, our remarkable people, our clear and focused strategy will serve us well in the coming months and years ahead."

Cook praised the record numbers posted by Apple. For the three months that ended in December, Apple said revenue increased 18% to a record $54.5 billion. Profit also set an all-time high but was up only slightly from the year-earlier quarter, rising to $13.08 billion, or $13.81 a share, from $13.06 billion, or $13.87.

Apple said it sold a record 47.8 million iPhones last quarter, up from 37 million iPhones in the same quarter of 2011. Despite that massive figure, some analysts had hoped to see stronger demand with sales exceeding 50 million.

"Meeting expectations is not enough for Apple," said Colin Gillis of BGC Financial. "So that's a little bit of a disappointment…. International sales were a little weaker than people expected. So we'll see how that shakes out."

Last quarter saw the introduction of the iPad mini, a 7.9-inch version of Apple's popular tablet computer. The Cupertino, Calif., company said it sold a total of 22.9 million iPads in the quarter, also a record, up from 15.4 million a year earlier. The company didn't break out iPad mini numbers from its total tablet sales, but Chief Financial Officer Peter Oppenheimer told analysts that the smaller version has been a hit and that the company experienced significant backlog getting the product to store shelves. The 22% lower average selling price for Apple's tablets suggests the mini has performed well but probably cannibalized some sales of its 9.7-inch version.

Historic comparisons were challenging this year because the most recent quarter had only 13 weeks, compared with 14 weeks for the same quarter of 2011.

Like many retailers and consumer electronics companies, the quarter from October to December is typically Apple's largest because of the holiday shopping season. Last year, Apple managed to stun investors by beating its own revenue estimates by more than 25% and earnings forecast by nearly 50%. That sent the stock soaring.

But even as Apple extended its lead as the world's most valuable company, and set a record in August for most valuable company ever when not adjusted for inflation, doubts began to creep into the minds of analysts and investors.

Shares have plummeted 27% in the last four months. On Wednesday, shares rose $9.24, or 1.8%, to $514.01 during regular trading.

Apple reported strong earnings in both the third and fourth quarters last year, but the numbers missed analysts' consensus estimates. Gradually, analysts began lowering their forecasts for Apple's earnings for the current fiscal year. At the same time,

Apple experienced some uncharacteristic gaffes. The new Apple Maps app that replaced Google Maps on iOS 6 devices had reliability problems, prompting a rare apology by Apple. And the iPhone 5 that went on sale in September faced long shipping delays as Apple suppliers struggled to adapt to the new, longer screen size.

The dismissal of iOS chief Scott Forstall, a favorite of the late Apple co-founder Steve Jobs, raised eyebrows. But so did a new strategy for launching products: Whereas Apple updates to products used to be few and far between, the company has lately begun increasing the number of products as well as the introduction of new versions.

The first quarter saw one of the busiest product launch cycles in the company's history. The quarter was the first full quarter of sales for the iPhone 5, a new iPod Touch and nano, the fourth iPad, a new 13-inch Retina MacBook Pro, and, of course, the first iPad mini.

Observers have pointed to this accelerated pace as an indication that Apple is facing more competitive pressure from rivals such as Samsung Electronics Co., which is now the world's biggest seller of smartphones, with its Galaxy series of phones. The concern is that the faster upgrade cycle plus the smaller iPad mini will cut into Apple's historically high profit margins.

Such fears over lower profits have also been stoked by the debate over whether Apple plans to release a cheaper iPhone aimed at capturing market share in emerging economies and the concern that Apple has not been able to strike a deal with China's largest carrier.

Now that the first-quarter numbers have been released, analysts will be busy recalibrating their projections over the next couple of days. But the focus is also likely to shift to renewed speculation about new products that investors are hoping will drive another big run for the stock.

chris.obrien@latimes.com

andrea.chang@latimes.com

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Air Force defends handling of sex scandal

Top Air Force brass told a congressional panel Wednesday that they had made progress in addressing the underlying problems of culture and discipline that led to repeated cases of sexual misconduct at Lackland Air Force Base in Texas, calling sexual assault in the ranks "a cancer."

The generals' accounts were challenged by victims, who called sexual assaults in the military "epidemic" and insisted that alleged perpetrators be independently investigated and prosecuted outside the military chain of command.

The hearing before the House Armed Services Committee in Washington started with testimony by the Air Force's top commander, Gen. Mark A. Welsh III, and Gen. Edward D. Rice Jr., head of the training command at Joint Base San Antonio-Randolph. Lackland is part of the San Antonio-Randolph complex.

As of this week, 32 basic training instructors at Lackland have been under investigation and 59 possible victims of sexual misconduct have been identified by the base. A report in mid-November said that a faulty command culture and "leadership gap" at Lackland helped fuel the widening scandal.

Rice noted that "the vast majority of our instructors served with distinction in a very demanding duty assignment." However, he added, "We clearly failed in our responsibility to establish order and discipline among our instructors."

Six basic training instructors at Lackland have been convicted of sexual misconduct dating to 2008, two were given a nonjudicial punishment, and nine trials are pending. Next week, Staff Sgt. Eddy C. Soto faces a possible life sentence in the alleged rape of a female airman.

Initially, Rice said, trainers at Lackland believed the assaults were the actions of "a few bad apples."

"They've had to recognize they have a significant part to play in addressing the problem," he said.

Rice said that there had been cases at Lackland in which a commander decided "a court-martial was not the appropriate venue" for discipline and instead "used some of the other tools available to them uniquely in the military justice system," including nonjudicial punishment. But he said that did not mean the accused had escaped justice.

He noted that the length of time trainers serve had been reduced from four years to a maximum of three years, limiting their exposure to recruits at the Air Force's main site for basic training, where about 500 trainers churn out about 35,000 new airmen annually.

Of 46 recommended improvements submitted by Chief of Air Force Safety Maj. Gen. Margaret H. Woodward as part of her investigative report on Lackland last year, Rice said the Air Force had completed half and expected to have most of the rest done by the end of the year.

The Air Force has created "special victim teams" of two dozen military investigators trained to handle sexual assault cases; they go to work later this month. Sixty additional military lawyers have been trained as "special victims counsel," and the Air Force plans to hire and assign a victim advocate to every installation by October.

"The evidence indicates that our efforts are making a difference," Rice said in the televised hearing, noting that there had not been any reports of sexual misconduct in the last seven months.

However, reported sexual assaults in the Air Force increased nearly 30% last fiscal year to 796, according to testimony the generals submitted to the committee.

Welsh, who called sexual assaults a cancer, said victims needed to be better encouraged to come forward to pursue charges against their assailants, and that the military needed to do a better job of screening trainers.

The hearing did not include testimony from the alleged sexual assault victims at Lackland, nor from those charged or convicted in connection with the investigation. But two Air Force veterans who said they were sexually assaulted years ago did testify.

"It breaks my heart to see the same problems today that existed when I joined 16 years ago," said retired Air Force Tech. Sgt. Jennifer Norris, who said she was assaulted four times while serving, the first time as a 24-year-old recruit at Keesler Air Force Base in Mississippi.

Norris, 40, appeared on behalf of Protect Our Defenders, an advocacy group based in Burlingame, Calif. Norris, a member of the group's board, said she had talked to another alleged victim from the Air Force just this week and that many more were still afraid to speak up.

"If you want a career, you don't want to say anything because you get retaliated against; you get beat up and thrown out. We need to remove the chain of command from the reporting process — it's absolutely detrimental," she said, adding that as a military sexual assault victim, "You almost become a leper." She testified that two of her attackers pleaded guilty, but others were never charged.

Retired Air Force Chief Master Sgt. Cindy McNally told the committee that she was assaulted during her training in the 1970s at Chanute Air Force Base in Illinois and at a later post. She said the solution was not just to promote more women into military leadership.

"Doing what's right is genderless," said McNally, who was representing the Service Women's Action Network, a New York-based advocacy group. McNally said she reported the first incident but it was never pursued; she didn't bother to report the subsequent assault.

Rep. Jackie Speier (D-Hillsborough), who visited Lackland with a congressional delegation last year and has proposed legislation to remove such cases from the military chain of command, noted that after Britain experienced a similar military sex scandal in 2006, it created a separate unit within the military to prosecute sexual assaults. A year later, she said, the effort was deemed a success.

Rep. Susan A. Davis (D-San Diego), also part of the delegation to Lackland, said she had been disappointed in the military response to the scandal, but was "reluctant to take this out of the chain of command" because "to pull this out in some way says we don't believe our officers are capable of dealing with this issue."

"We are doing a better job of training prosecutors" to handle military sexual assaults, she said, "but it is still a big problem."

molly.hennessy-fiske@latimes.com

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Let’s Welcome Back Hockey with This ESPN Commercial

We realize there’s only so much time one can spend in a day watching new trailers, viral video clips, and shaky cell phone footage of people arguing on live television. This is why every day The Atlantic Wire highlights the videos that truly earn your five minutes (or less) of attention. Today:  

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Hockey, schmockey. As a whole, the Atlantic Wire staff is sort of ambivalent that the NHL is finally back. (Our Canadian correspondent, however, is thrilled.) But you know what we are thankful for? The ESPN commercial reminding us that the NHL is finally back: 

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These people are awesome (and, hey, maybe some of them play hockey):

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People are awesome, and also quite strange. Like this guy, who offers the world a video review of the Astor CB-100 (totally SFW), and the 33,000+ views his video has already gotten:

And finally, these are ponies in sweaters. Ponies in sweaters, people:

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Voice actor for Charlie Brown arrested in Calif.

SAN DIEGO (AP) — The man who was the voice of Charlie Brown on many "Peanuts" television shows has been charged with stalking and threatening his former girlfriend and a plastic surgeon who gave her a breast enhancement he apparently didn't like.

Peter Robbins pleaded not guilty Wednesday in San Diego Superior Court.

Robbins was arrested Sunday at the San Ysidro Port of Entry after authorities doing a background check upon his return from Mexico spotted a warrant from the San Diego County Sheriff's Department.

Prosecutors say the 56-year-old stalked and threatened his former girlfriend, as well as the plastic surgeon. Authorities say Robbins paid for the breast enhancement.

He is being held on $550,000 bond.

Robbins was the voice of Charlie Brown on "A Charlie Brown Christmas" and other TV specials.

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Well: Long Term Effects on Life Expectancy From Smoking

It is often said that smoking takes years off your life, and now a new study shows just how many: Longtime smokers can expect to lose about 10 years of life expectancy.

But amid those grim findings was some good news for former smokers. Those who quit before they turn 35 can gain most if not all of that decade back, and even those who wait until middle age to kick the habit can add about five years back to their life expectancies.

“There’s the old saw that everyone knows smoking is bad for you,” said Dr. Tim McAfee of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. “But this paints a much more dramatic picture of the horror of smoking. These are real people that are getting 10 years of life expectancy hacked off — and that’s just on average.”

The findings were part of research, published on Wednesday in The New England Journal of Medicine, that looked at government data on more than 200,000 Americans who were followed starting in 1997. Similar studies that were done in the 1980s and the decades prior had allowed scientists to predict the impact of smoking on mortality. But since then many population trends have changed, and it was unclear whether smokers today fared differently from smokers decades ago.

Since the 1960s, the prevalence of smoking over all has declined, falling from about 40 percent to 20 percent. Today more than half of people that ever smoked have quit, allowing researchers to compare the effects of stopping at various ages.

Modern cigarettes contain less tar and medical advances have cut the rates of death from vascular disease drastically. But have smokers benefited from these advances?

Women in the 1960s, ’70s and ’80s had lower rates of mortality from smoking than men. But it was largely unknown whether this was a biological difference or merely a matter of different habits: earlier generations of women smoked fewer cigarettes and tended to take up smoking at a later age than men.

Now that smoking habits among women today are similar to those of men, would mortality rates be the same as well?

“There was a big gap in our knowledge,” said Dr. McAfee, an author of the study and the director of the C.D.C.’s Office on Smoking and Public Health.

The new research showed that in fact women are no more protected from the consequences of smoking than men. The female smokers in the study represented the first generation of American women that generally began smoking early in life and continued the habit for decades, and the impact on life span was clear. The risk of death from smoking for these women was 50 percent higher than the risk reported for women in similar studies carried out in the 1980s.

“This sort of puts the nail in the coffin around the idea that women might somehow be different or that they suffer fewer effects of smoking,” Dr. McAfee said.

It also showed that differences between smokers and the population in general are becoming more and more stark. Over the last 20 years, advances in medicine and public health have improved life expectancy for the general public, but smokers have not benefited in the same way.

“If anything, this is accentuating the difference between being a smoker and a nonsmoker,” Dr. McAfee said.

The researchers had information about the participants’ smoking histories and other details about their health and backgrounds, including diet, alcohol consumption, education levels and weight and body fat. Using records from the National Death Index, they calculated their mortality rates over time.

People who had smoked fewer than 100 cigarettes in their lifetimes were not classified as smokers. Those who had smoked at least 100 cigarettes but had not had one within five years of the time the data was collected were classified as former smokers.

Not surprisingly, the study showed that the earlier a person quit smoking, the greater the impact. People who quit between 25 and 34 years of age gained about 10 years of life compared to those who continued to smoke. But there were benefits at many ages. People who quit between 35 and 44 gained about nine years, and those who stopped between 45 and 59 gained about four to six years of life expectancy.

From a public health perspective, those numbers are striking, particularly when juxtaposed with preventive measures like blood pressure screenings, colorectal screenings and mammography, the effects of which on life expectancy are more often viewed in terms of days or months, Dr. McAfee said.

“These things are very important, but the size of the benefit pales in comparison to what you can get from stopping smoking,” he said. “The notion that you could add 10 years to your life by something as straightforward as quitting smoking is just mind boggling.”

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Number of homes entering foreclosure drops 22.1% to six-year low

California's foreclosure crisis eased considerably during the final quarter of last year, with the number of homes entering foreclosure dropping to a six-year low.

The steep decline, accompanied by a similar drop in home repossessions, clears the path for a quickened pace of recovery this year. Fewer foreclosures on the market should lead to higher home prices and a healthier real estate market.

"Ultimately, fewer foreclosures means an even tighter market, which means a more rapid recovery," said Christopher Thornberg, a principal at Beacon Economics. "I see very little to forestall the real estate market this year."

The real estate research firm DataQuick reported a 22.1% decline in default notices during the final three months of 2012 compared with the previous quarter — and a 37.9% drop from a year earlier. A total of 38,212 default notices were logged on California houses and condominiums last quarter, the lowest number since the final quarter of 2006. A default notice is the first formal step in the state's foreclosure process.

Since the number of new foreclosure cases peaked in early 2009, experts and analysts have feared a second wave of home loan defaults flooding the market. Three years later, that appears unlikely as banks turn to foreclosure alternatives and home prices rise.

"We are past the peak of this," said Kenneth Rosen, chairman of the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics at UC Berkeley's Haas School of Business.

A steadily improving economy has helped ease homeowner woes. And the vast number of underwater borrowers — those owing more on their homes than they're worth — have continued to pay their mortgages instead of walking away. Rising home prices should help more underwater homeowners come up for air, allowing them to regain equity and sell their homes if they run into financial trouble.

"Home values increased through most of 2012, and the rate of increase picked up toward the end of the year," DataQuick President John Walsh said in a news release. "That means fewer and fewer homeowners are underwater."

California's median home price rose 22.4% last quarter to $300,000.

California has also been able to work through its foreclosure problem faster than other states, in part because foreclosures take place largely outside the courtroom, said Celia Chen, a housing economist with Moody's Economy.com. That means California has not been bogged down with the same level of paperwork issues and delays that states such as Florida or New York have experienced.

California has also benefited from economic growth from Asian trade and from the technology industry centered around Silicon Valley. Indeed, the technology-rich Bay Area's declines in default notices outpaced both the statewide drops and those in every other region.

Those foreclosed homes that are hitting the market are being snapped up by investors to either rent or flip. Investors bought 42% of all homes sold at foreclosure auctions statewide last quarter, according to DataQuick.

Big hedge funds have become so interested in cheaply priced homes that flippers are now increasingly searching for homes in the $400,000 to $600,000 range throughout Los Angeles County, said Robert Fragoso, executive vice president for Anchor Loans, which makes short-term loans to investors. The new interest among renovators in pricier homes should also push up prices. Already, some homes are selling for more than the asking price, Fragoso said.

"I am seeing the inventory levels right now at very, very, very low rates, especially when you are talking about the product that has already been remodeled," he said. "We are getting multiple offers on almost everything within days of it hitting the market."

Banks have been increasingly averse to foreclosure because state and federal regulators increased scrutiny on the process, which led to huge settlements as well as new laws. Major lenders have now stepped up short sales and other kinds of loan modifications to deal with troubled borrowers.

Although the foreclosure crisis has abated, the number of people losing their homes remains at a very high level compared with historical averages, said Paul Leonard, California director for the Center for Responsible Lending. Those entering foreclosure are most likely people suffering from California's still tough economy or those with the most limited resources. Aid programs and reforms by federal and state authorities are still needed, he said.

"One has to be very cautious," Leonard said, "even as we have seen substantial declines in the overall levels of default and foreclosure."

alejandro.lazo@latimes.com

andrew.khouri@latimes.com

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Even with record sales, Apple's earnings report may disappoint

If all goes according to plan Wednesday, Apple Inc. will report record revenue. The company will reveal that it sold more iPhones than in any previous quarter. And it will confirm that it hauled in another boatload of cash to swell its overflowing coffers.

In other words, Apple's earnings have all the makings of a colossal disaster.

That's because no matter how mind-blowing its performance, there is growing concern among investors that Apple's remarkable run of smartphone dominance is coming to an end. Although analysts' estimates for the company are all over the map, there is general agreement that Apple will not grow at nearly the same pace as it has over the last five years.

But after months of speculation and countless rumors that has helped drive the company's stock down 28% from its September peak, there is still widespread disagreement about how much that growth will slow and whether investors should be alarmed.

With observers desperate to finally hear what Apple executives have to say, the company's earnings report scheduled after the market closes Wednesday has become one of its most pivotal and highly anticipated in years.

Ben Reitzes, an analyst at Barclays, sent a recent note about Apple's earnings to clients under the title "Preparing for the Most Important Conference Call in Years."

Quiz: What set the Internet on fire in 2012?

"We believe that investor sentiment is quite negative right now for Apple, with significant concerns around demand trends for the iPhone 5," he wrote.

How investors adjust to that reality of slower growth is hard to predict. Will it be interpreted as a sign of weakness? Or just the reality that as a company gets bigger its pace of growth will inevitably slow?

First, the numbers. In October, Apple told Wall Street analysts that for its first quarter, which ended in December, investors should expect the company to report $52 billion in revenue and earnings of $11.75 a share.

But Apple tends to be notoriously conservative in its own guidance. For the same quarter a year earlier, Apple beat revenue estimates by more than 25% and earnings forecasts by nearly 50%. The surprising quarterly performance sent its stock into the stratosphere over the next nine months, eventually hitting an all-time high of $702.10 in September.

Such a huge surprise seems unlikely this time around. The consensus among Wall Street analysts is that Apple will report $54.7 billion in revenue and $13.41 a share in earnings. If the latter figure proves correct, that would represent a decline from the $13.87 a share in earnings that Apple reported for the same quarter last year. Not only would it be the first drop in a decade, but it also could confirm fears that Apple's new mix of products, including the iPad Mini, are hurting the company's historically high profit margins.

Making this all the more complicated is a quirk in the calendar. Last year, the same quarter had 14 weeks. This year, it has only 13 weeks. That means once the numbers are released, analysts and investors will have to do some fast calculations to make comparisons that are truly apples to apples.

In addition to worries about profit margins, investors have been fretting over rumors that the iPhone 5 has not been selling as well as expected, that rival Samsung Electronics Co. is widening its lead in smartphone sales, and that Apple's product upgrades don't dazzle like they once did. Of course, much of this is conjecture. But it has muddled projections, with analysts predicting that Apple could report earnings from as low as $11.53 a share to as much as $15.50 a share.

That kind of uncertainty has made investors even more eager than usual to hear any news about Apple's performance. Even more important than the numbers, however, is what Apple executives say about the future.

Since last summer, analysts have been growing more pessimistic about the current fiscal year, which ends in September, lowering their earnings projections to $48.86 a share from $54.87 a share in July. Should Apple lower that outlook further in the conference call Wednesday, it could trigger panic among Apple's investors.

"I think the concerns being reflected in the stock today have more to do with the next quarter than this one," said Walter Piecyk, a research analyst at BTIG.

To some analysts, the gloom over Apple's prospect is simply absurd. The value of the stock, trading at about 11 times earnings, is low by historical standards. Its price-to-earnings ratio hasn't been this low in more than five years, a period in which it has hovered between 15 and 20 times earnings.

And according to research firm Bespoke Investment Group, Apple is currently trading further below the consensus target ($728.36) than any of the other 100 largest stocks in the S&P 500. Apple on Tuesday closed up $4.77, or 1%, to $504.77‎.

In this view, the world's most valuable company is trading at bargain basement prices.

"There's nothing wrong with their business," said Colin Gillis, director of research at BGC Financial. "It's just a question of whether growth is going to slow. That had to happen eventually."

chris.obrien@latimes.com

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